Migaruke LV.20 Insomniac
Oct 19, 2019, 11:28 PM 724 read

Here's a plot of the pull distribution from simulation

FORUM

EDIT: Switched to a cumulative histogram, as I think that's easier to interpret for most people. x-axis is how many gems used, and y-axis is the percentage of people who would get the limited character if they decided to use a certain number of gems. For example, we can see that 60% of people would get the limited banner child with roughly 25k crystals.   So instead of just throwing numbers out, I decided to make a plot to share. It represents if you decide to pull for a limited child, how many gems it may take for you to get them.   I did 1 million trials to see, and results actually surprised me. I thought there was gonna be a peak in the middle at around 27000 gems (Gaussian distribution), but it turns out that a good number of people will get it very early on.   The problem is the tail end. One of my trials took 468,990 gems to get, which I could image would make anyone quit...   Overall the average number is 27000 gems, which is expected.   Anyways here's the plot for those interested.

DESTINY CHILD: FORUM - Here's a plot of the pull distribution from simulation image 4

Comment 4

  • Migaruke LV.20 Insomniac Oct 19, 2019, 11:33 PM

    Python code for those interested in trying:

    first here's a photo of it since formatting on moot is terrible

  • Migaruke LV.20 Insomniac Oct 19, 2019, 11:34 PM

    Actual python code with Moot's terrible formatting:

    import numpy as np
    import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

    nc=0
    number_of_trials=1000000
    probability=0.01
    #above is the probability of getting limited banner child
    history_of_gems_used=[]
    while nc <= number_of_trials:
    gems_used=0
    got_child=False
    while got_child is False:
    gems_used+=270
    if np.random.rand()<probability:
    got_child=True
    history_of_gems_used.append(gems_used)
    nc+=1

  • Ivy Felissa LV.24 Genius Oct 20, 2019, 01:24 AM

    Sadly i'm above the average, 30k gems and no catherine, only giving me some shtty 5* that had been fully uncapped :(
    And there will be no combined banners, damn it
    Idk if i can get catherine and rin

  • Migaruke LV.20 Insomniac Oct 20, 2019, 08:23 AM

    there's still 1.5 weeks left so don't give up hope! you probably have a good 5-6 multis left from now till the end of the banner!

    I had to pull 14 times to get Catherine (37800 gems). I didn't actually get any other 5* in the process, which was very unusual.

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