philtheedragon19 LV.23 Dragon
Dec 30, 2019, 10:02 AM 509 read

Cost effective HOR’s restoration question

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Is it better to use 5 4* at a time at 10%? Or 40 4* at a time at 100%? Which of these options is most cost effective in terms of bloodgems and fodder?

Comment 12

  • SehatDanKuat LV.21 S Dec 30, 2019, 12:07 PM

    10% is for people who have Self confidence Luck ( have a Pro Gambler Soul )they choose risk way. 100% is for people who are desperate/ Trauma experience with 3%,10% ,even 50% they choose safer way..

  • philtheedragon19 LV.23 Dragon Dec 30, 2019, 12:58 PM

    Right on but which way saves on bloodgems+onyx+fodder the best. At first I thought 100%, but that way might end up costing more than it would with small chances, I don’t know for sure though.

    I figure it’s up for debate until someone mathematically figures it out and writes up something nice.

    Personally, I like 100% in restoration because I don’t wanna pay 12 bloodgems at a time for probably 10 4* and THEN get the 5* mileage bonus. Once it’s clear whether min 10% or maximum 100% is best I won’t bother with restoration.

  • BadMelody LV.21 Professional Noob Dec 31, 2019, 04:04 AM

    It doesn't really matter if someone writes something up because they give us the percentages up-front. 10% success rate means it's gonna average out to getting one 5* every ten pulls. This doesn't really matter much to an individual person though, because you would have to do thousands of pulls before that 10% success rate starts to actually even out at 10%. Some people could go hundreds of pulls without getting a single 5 star, whereas there could be others that get 5 stars one after another, this is why people that try to collect data need a large amount of people to submit their pulls before they can make any kind of substantial conclusion. So even if someone does all the math and comes out with a sheet that says the 10% is overall the better price, you could be that person that goes a hundred pulls without getting a single 5 star child. This is why you see people posting on moot and reddit getting four or five 5* childs in a single pull, but you also see people complaining that they haven't gotten a single 5* child after spending 300k+ crystals, it's because that 10% chance means very little to one single person unless they plan on doing an insane amount of pulls on their own. The only benefit that the 10% pull is gonna have is that it gives you more chances to get lucky, but a spreadsheet won't really help you at that point because having good luck can very easily turn into bad luck and a spreadsheet isn't gonna be able to predict your luck.

  • philtheedragon19 LV.23 Dragon Dec 31, 2019, 06:27 AM

    Soooooooo...which way is cheaper. It matters to anyone who doesn’t wanna waste bloodgems

  • BadMelody LV.21 Professional Noob Dec 31, 2019, 07:05 AM

    Statistically they're both gonna be averaging out to the same cost over a large number of pulls. if you go for the 10% chance then you're eventually gonna be getting roughly 1 5* per 10 pulls, which is gonna be the same cost as just doing the 100% pull one time.

    Being realistic though, you're not gonna be doing thousands of reincarnation pulls, so there is no definitive answer for one individual because you could either be the person that gets back to back 5* childs or you could be the person that goes a hundred pulls without getting a single 5*

    At the end of the day, one being more valuable than the other is just gonna come down to whether you get lucky or unlucky on 10% pulls, that's why I said a spreadsheet wouldn't matter. All a spreadsheet would tell you is that, when removing as much rng/luck factor as possible, paying 10% of the price for a 10% chance to get something is eventually gonna cost about the same as paying 100% of the price for a 100% chance to get something. Your luck is gonna be the final part of the equation, and you can't really quantify luck.

  • Olaf901 LV.2 Lurker Dec 31, 2019, 02:00 AM

    i did one 50% got 5* , and another 50% cause i didnt have anything to lose got nothing ... so pretty much do 100% cause u can get 0 from 10x 10%

  • Migaruke LV.20 Insomniac Dec 31, 2019, 07:44 AM

    I'm probably never going to use 4* option so take my info with a grain of salt.

    I read that it's better to do the 10% version with five 4* units because your mileage bar only increases with a failed attempt (meaning the mileage bar will never increase when you do the 100%).

    The expected value (E=Sum(x*P(x)) is the same for the 10% vs the 100% option, so you are likely to use the same amount of resources per 5* obtained (120 blood gems and 40 units), especially as your number of total tries increases towards infinity. ***(Yes it's only going to look equal with a very large amount of trys. If you collect your own personal data, one method is going to be ahead of the other in terms of resources cost, due to statistical fluctuations. All the trys you will personally do is NOT a huge number)***

    However in the 10% case, you're gonna get some mileage, which gives you a 5* unit from your list when mileage maxes out. So you get a bit more from the 10% over time.

    ***Just keep in mind the 10% is RNG, so sometimes you're gonna go on a dry streak and feel like shit, while other times you're gonna get more than one 5* in 10 tries.***

    Last thing I read, I heard 1 of your attempts needs to use 6 units instead of 5 to cleanly fill your mileage to 100%, or else you're gonna end up at 99% and need to do one more try with 5 units (thereby wasting 4 units in the mileage). I forgot where I read this, so please double check and take it with a grain of salt.

  • Migaruke LV.20 Insomniac Dec 31, 2019, 08:28 AM

    For fun I did a simulation for y'all:

    100 players
    50 tries each
    10% pull rate

    The expected number of 5* to obtain is 5 units per player, since it's 50 tries.

    Results:
    4 players got absolutely nothing

    Half of the players get less than the expected value (4 or less units)

    1 lucky player got 12 units total

    This is what RNG looks like. Take it as you may for making your decision. May Mammon be with you (。•̀ᴗ-)✧

  • philtheedragon19 LV.23 Dragon Jan 1, 2020, 01:34 AM

    This is beautiful. Thank you!

  • Bikini Lisa LV.19 Boo! Dec 30, 2019, 02:44 PM

    I've done five 4* at 10% pull rate over ten times now and still haven't gotten a single 5*. My milage bar is roughly 60% complete. I feel like I am doing this wrong...

  • Zombie Dane LV.27 Team Rocket Dec 30, 2019, 04:11 PM

    my 4th pull of 10% got me Eshu. best advice is make the pull not thinking about it. don't even look at it, the game can feel your anticipation. lol. thats what i do.

  • philtheedragon19 LV.23 Dragon Dec 30, 2019, 05:00 PM

    Lol I feel like a 1/10 chance is too good to be true, which is why I’m reluctant to do the minimum. 9/10 you’re just building up mileage, which might be worthwhile IF the mileage gauge doesn’t reset if you do get the 1/10 chance of a 5*.

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