Azedenkae LV.7 Nomad
May 14, 2020, 04:14 PM 510 read

Ragna Break Season 8 (Iphis) Platinum Chest Results Analysis

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DESTINY CHILD: FORUM - Ragna Break Season 8 (Iphis) Platinum Chest Results Analysis image 1

Hey all, so at the start of this ragna, I began recording what platinum chest rewards I got, to see how well it matches up with the published stats. Before we begin, here's a few disclaimers: +++I may have missed one or two drops, but that should not affect the results materially. Especially as the drops I missed would not have been any 5* child, spa skin, or costume. +++I did make a purchase before ragna, can't remember why. I think devil pass maybe? I also made three smaller purchases during ragna. Why am I reporting this? Well some people believe that people who spend money gets a 'boost' to their rng. I don't think so, but hey. If you think it is important, then here's the disclaimer. +++The plat chests can come from raids, slayer rewards, or purchased with ragna coins. I did not make an effort to differentiate the drops from the plat chests from these three sources. +++ 4* child drops also include evolution material childs, which is awesome. Unfortunately I did not record how many were dropped, though it's probably in the 5-10% range of all 4* child drops. +++I did not make an effort to differentiate A and B rarity equipments either. So the equipment drops reported are for both A and B rarity drops combined. +++I made a goal to make an hour before maintenance start as the last moment possible to begin a raid, to ensure that I was not 'ending ragna on a high note' or anything of the sorts. It was to be predetermined. Before that moment I was raiding as much as I could.     So without further ado, let's have a look at the results.     I would say that on average, I spend about 15 free tickets a day, so the total number of tickets spent would be 15 times 21 days, plus 41,000 crystals worth of purchased tickets. So, 15*21+10*41000/1000 = 725. I did 725 raids over the course of the 21 days... no wonder my phone slowed down drastically towards the end. Of the 331 plat chests,3.5 was purchased each day from the third day, and 2 was received from the slayer rewards for 16 of the 21 days. So, approximately 236 dropped from raids, or around 32.56%. Which based on my previous experience, seems about right.     I used the chisq.test function in excel to perform a Pearson's Chi Square Test on the results. I did so using the actual numbers (observed and expected), rather than the percentages. The result is 0.934 (to 3 s.f.). This indicates that there is not a significant difference between observed and expected results.   The 'outlier' here is probably the results for spa skin drops. I received a total of 4, though I should have expected to receive 6.62. As a lower probability drop, it's not too abnormal for there to be a bit of a variation.   I guess what we all care about the most is 5* child drops. The expected number I should receive is 29.79, but I received 30. Pretty much exactly as per published drop rates.   So there we go. From the expected versus observed drop rates, I would say that the published rates are not wrong. Most results just from a subjective observation would seem close to what is projected.     For those who are wondering, of the four spa skins, I got 2x Pomona (the 5* one, can't remember the name), 1x Bridal Hildr, and 1x Iphis.     As for 5* childs, I received: 2x Khepri (yay!) 1x Pallas 6x Moonlight Werewolf (new child for me, so straight to +5 uncaps she went) 4x Two-Sided Moa (new child for me) 1x Pretty Mars (new child for me) 1x Mysterious Saturn (new child for me) 5x Durandal 3x Aimless Pantheon (new child for me) 1x Iphis 3x Metis 1x Red Cross 1x Lan Fei 1x Elizabeth   Seems like I was getting older and newer released childs alike. The distribution does not seem very even to me, but well, 30 childs is too small a sample size.     According to the distribution of ragna coin results, the average ragna coin reward is 3,373. So on average, presuming a drop rate of 31%, you are getting 1,046 ragna coins per plat chest opened.     I hope you guys have found this analysis somewhat useful/motivating for further ragna events. Any questions, go ahead. :D

Comment 21

  • Ericool Lim LV.18 Sage May 14, 2020, 05:00 PM

    I respect to your great effort . And I think DC team also happy to found ragna game is fair according from your analysis.

    👍👍👍

  • Azedenkae LV.7 Nomad May 14, 2020, 05:05 PM

    Thanks! And yeah. I am also hoping that through this, people are more inclined to do ragnas and all that, assuming the probabilities are like listed.

  • PantsuNinja LV.19 Sage May 14, 2020, 05:01 PM

    I only got three 5-stars :(

  • Azedenkae LV.7 Nomad May 14, 2020, 05:05 PM

    D: Did a lot of raids too, or only few?

  • PantsuNinja LV.19 Sage May 14, 2020, 05:40 PM

    I do them throughout the day as much as I can between work and family. I probably opened at least 100 chests by now.

  • Azedenkae LV.7 Nomad May 14, 2020, 06:02 PM

    Ah. That's unfortunately. D: Looks like you got the short end of the stick and drew way less than is expected. D: D: D:

  • Kara Sol Stay Calm LV.20 Supersonic May 14, 2020, 05:01 PM

    Not a single healer Midas, heh.

  • Azedenkae LV.7 Nomad May 14, 2020, 05:08 PM

    Nope, not a single one.

    Actually, given that there are 18 5* dark childs, if I factor that in, then the distribution actually becomes statistically significantly different from expected, even with such a small sample size. Chi square test returns 0.00945.

    T_T

    I want my healer Midases. Happy I didn't get Rita, coz I picked her as the 6* fully uncapped reward from Lisa's lessons. But yeah.

  • SuperSonico LV.15 Chief May 14, 2020, 06:19 PM

    Great job!

  • Azedenkae LV.7 Nomad May 14, 2020, 06:29 PM

    Thanks! Very happy with the results. I have previously been pretty happy with DC and its rng and believed that it was fair, but always wanted proof. This by no means mean that it is definitely without a doubt that DC's rng is not rigged at all, but hey, at least this is a starting point for reassurance. I think a lot of people had been pondering this for a while now.

  • Mellemon LV.8 Rare Candy May 15, 2020, 12:32 AM

    I definitely agree with what results you came up with!

    I have been recording what childs I get every ragna (thought in a far less sophisticated way) and this was by far the best ragna that I have personally ever have. The closes season would be 1 in terms of rewards but the numbers are still sad compared to this season.

  • Q_Roi LV.22 Link May 14, 2020, 08:46 PM

    anyone here got durandal?
    i didn't got a chance! not even 1 copy

    and..when do we get the slayer reward?
    the one on slayer rank reward?

  • Azedenkae LV.7 Nomad May 14, 2020, 08:57 PM

    I got five. Slayer ranking rewards should come soon.

  • Q_Roi LV.22 Link May 14, 2020, 09:02 PM

    so does it meant that when it is a raid event you will be able to have a chance to get every child of that element? except collabs?

    (mostly from platinum chest)

    does it mean that i just didn't got durandal from the whole event?b

  • Azedenkae LV.7 Nomad May 14, 2020, 09:50 PM

    Yes, any child from that element except collabs and HoR-specific childs.

    So yes, you were just unlucky. For example, I didn't get Midas or A.I either. Whereas I got 5 copies of Durandal, 6 copies of Werewolf, etc. It's all just luck.

  • Q_Roi LV.22 Link May 14, 2020, 09:58 PM

    how about me getting 6 bride iphis?
    does it count? not to mention spa outfit 😔

    it would better getting it at least twice but having 6 costumes? i don't know if is lucky or unlucky?

  • Azedenkae LV.7 Nomad May 14, 2020, 10:23 PM

    I guess slightly unlucky. D: I mean it should only be a 1% chance. That is a lot.

  • Q_Roi LV.22 Link May 14, 2020, 10:03 PM

    I am grateful though..
    cause she's cute 😋

  • Azedenkae LV.7 Nomad May 14, 2020, 10:23 PM

    Yes, yes she is indeed. ^_^

  • NO NAME verified May 15, 2020, 01:16 AM

    Ha. I used to track plat chests like this, but I found my “luck” to be below average more often than not which soured my experience, so I stopped obsessing and just took the punches as they came.

    I finished with 27 5*, but took part in more raids than you did. However, I only bought 5 chests total, so our total plat chests were probably close.

    I tip my cap to your efforts 👍

  • F13ND LV.6 Nomad May 16, 2020, 01:08 AM

    gonna have to give this a look later after work

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